Усупереч блокаді: пальне продовжує дешевшати

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Протягом тижня (з 13 по 17 листопада) ціни на пальне продовжили падати. Основним чинником були достатні обсяги пропозицій, а також несподіване зниження європейських котирувань.

Останні змусили ринок дещо похвилюватись. Упродовж усього тижня (з 13 по 16 листопада) зовнішні ціни повзли вгору, наповнюючи надією жорстке трейдерське серце. Але вона вмерла 16 листопада, коли стався крах одразу на $24-32/т, потягнувши за собою тижневий показник. У результаті за тиждень ціна на дизель у середньому зменшилася на $24/т, на бензин – на $44/т.

Страйки польських перевізників тривають. Якщо раніше автомобільні постачання бензину з Польщі й країн Балтії становили понад 50% від загального «бензовозного» імпорту, то завдяки протестувальникам це вже 30%. Згідно з даними enkorr, із 6 по 12 листопада через польські КПП заїхало 2 тис. т бензину, або вдвічі менше, ніж тижнем раніше. Автоімпорт дизелю впав на 40%, до 11,5 тис. т.

Водночас час зросли обсяги постачань залізничним і морським транспортом, що накрило ринок достатньою кількістю пального. Минулого тижня «залізничні» обсяги зросли на 10%. Якщо ж узяти більш віддалену ретроспективу, то порівняно з першою половиною жовтня рейками заїхало на 39% більше!

А для бензовозів компанії шукають нові маршрути, роблячи з Польщі коло через Словаччину чи Румунію.

«Ми намагаємося перевести частину продукту на залізницю, але бензин із півночі Польщі доводиться везти по великому колу через Словаччину й Румунію», – розповіло джерело у компанії UPG, найбільшому автоімпортері бензину.

UPG не була оригінальною, туди ж потягнулись і колеги по ринку, тому напрямок очікувано почав пробуксовувати. Згідно з сервісом «єЧерга», на 17 листопада на українсько-словацькому КПП треба було почекати на виїзд 12 днів, на румунських – 11. Крім того, як повідомило словацьке видання TERAZ, 16 листопада за ініціативою Спілки автоперевізників Словаччини на годину було заблоковано прикордонний перехід «Вишнє Німецьке» зі словацького боку на знак підтримки польських колег і всіх перевізників на території ЄС. Схоже, двері зачиняються й тут.

Залишається складною ситуація з відвантаженням у Констанці, час очікування якого може досягати двох тижнів. Що може змінити цю ситуацію, не знає жоден з опитаних трейдерів.

За оперативними даними enkorr, з 9 по 15 листопада кількість розмитнених паливовозів із бензином зменшилася на 15%, з дизпальним – на 13%. Тим часом обсяг ввезеного бензину зменшився на 45% (з 28,9 до 15,9 тис. т), а ось ДП – збільшився на 11% (до 151,5 тис. т).

Південь залишається основним напрямком постачання дизельного пального в країну. Головною ознакою є те, що на ринку спостерігаються всі ознаки профіциту, й це попри те, що вже кілька тижнів, як фактично заблоковано Молдову й Болгарію, не кажучи вже про вищезазначені проблеми на західному кордоні. Хто там казав, що буде дефіцит?

Пропозицій, м’яко кажучи, достатньо. Наприклад, «Анвітрейд» пропонував ресурс із Греції й Азербайджану, Continental Trade – з Індії, «Нексен Ойл» і «Мартін Трейд» – одразу з кількох напрямків. Ціни в регіоні стартували від 41,70 грн/л, при тому, що ще три тижні тому впритул тупцювали біля позначки 50 грн/л.

На заході пропозицій було не так багато, але вони були. «Петролайт» у Львівській і Волинській областях пропонувала дизельне пальне за 45 грн/л, а «ТД Альянс Ойл» – за 45,7 грн/л.

Згідно з моніторингом Консалтингової групи «А-95», за тиждень (з 13 по 17 листопада) середня ціна на бензин А-95 зменшилась на 0,25 грн, до 44,50 грн/л, на дизель – на 0,75 грн, до 46,00 грн/л.

Достатні обсяги пропозицій, незначний попит і здешевшання ресурсу в Європі створюють упевнене підґрунтя для подальшого зниження гуртових цін на пальне. А спред між оптом і роздробом обсягом 10,03 грн/л на бензин А-95 і 8,24 грн/л на ДП дозволяє очікувати охолодження цін на стелах АЗК разом з падінням температури повітря.