Прогноз українського авторинку у 2024 році від провідних автомобільних імпортерів

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Чи можна щось спрогнозувати в світі, який здається наче з’їхав з глузду? Яким може бути 2024 рік з точки зору автомобільного бізнесу в Україні? Та чи варто взагалі піднімати подібні питання у воюючій країні? AUTO-Consulting поспілкувався з представниками провідних імпортерів, щоб спробувати відповісти хоча б на деякі з цих питань.

Нагадаємо, що у минулому році ринок нових легкових автомобілів в Україні продемонстрував непогані темпи відновлення (+62,41%) та досяг відмітки 65 тис. одиниць.

Чи збережуться минулорічні темпи зростання ринку?

Дмитро Кондраков, Керівник департаменту продажів автомобілів, розвитку дилерської мережі та якості обслуговування клієнтів компанії «Ніссан Мотор Україна», прогнозує збереження обсягу ринку нових автомобілів. Принаймні станом на січень. Якщо ситуація з військовими діями, та пов’язаними з цим процесами, буде змінюватися, тоді можна очікувати зміни стану ринку нових автомобілів.

На рівні 2023 року оцінює перспективи ринку нових автомобілів і Марія Гарань, Директор ТОВ «Порше Україна».

Не береться прогнозувати ситуацію Наталія Топтун, PR-менеджерка Renault, бо занадто багато змінних.

Має оптимістичний погляд на події Дмитро Бабич, заступник генерального директора компанії «СОДЖІТЗ АВТО УКРАЇНА».

«Наша компанія вірить у наші збройні сили тож ми маємо надію, що їхні успіхи посприяють зростанню ринку. Це і є основною передумовою. Щодо темпів, то поки що це досить важко спрогнозувати, але передумов швидкого зростання у найближчі місяці я не бачу», – каже Дмитро.

Тобто, на думку наших спікерів, ринок нових автомобілів у 2024 році стабілізується на рівні 65 тис. авто.

Яким буде головний тренд на авторинку у 2024 році?

«Ми вважаємо що ринок 2024 має бути схожим щодо трендів на попередній рік», – ділиться баченням Дмитро Кондраков (Nissan). – «Можливе невеличке збільшення продажів в кредит, але при умові стабілізації військової ситуації та пов’язаних з нею процесів».

В компанії «Порше Україна» очікують на подальше посилення основних трендів 2023 року.

За спостереженнями AUTO-Consulting до таких відноситься посилення сегменту SUV, активність «сірих» імпортерів та пов’язане з ними збільшення долі електромобілів.

«Я поки що не бачу передумов для серйозних змін у 2024 році порівняно з 2023. Але події на кшталт нещодавнього тендеру на закупівлю пікапів Міноборони у разі їх успішної реалізації та відповідних реєстрацій можуть змінити статистику», – вважає Дмитро Бабич, заступник генерального директора компанії «СОДЖІТЗ АВТО УКРАЇНА».

Які ризики несе ріст кількості «сірих» дилерів?

AUTO-Consulting неодноразово піднімав це питання в спілкуванні з офіційними імпортерами, зокрема щодо стрімко зростаючого сегменту електромобілів. Тим не менше, ми знову й знову піднімаємо це питання, щоб слідкувати за ситуацією майже в режимі реального часу.

На думку Дмитра Кондракова (Nissan), великого зростання кількості альтернативних дилерів не слід очікувати.

Згоден з ним і Дмитро Бабич (Subaru): «На сьогодні вже існує необхідна для потреб ринку кількість «сірих» дилерів. Звісно, більшість сконцентрована на постачанні дешевих електромобілів з Китаю».

«На нашу думку, «сірі» дилери електромобілів китайського виробництва будуть продовжувати лишатися активними, фокусуючи свою пропозицію на тих сегментах, брендах і моделях, які офіційно не представлені на ринку України», – вважає Марина Гарань («Порше Україна»).

Зростання «сірих» дилерів очікує Наталія Топтун (Renault): «Ми не спостерігаємо уповільнення імпорту електромобілів, які завозять здебільшого саме «сірі» дилери. Тож імовірно, якщо кількість таких дилерів збільшиться, то саме в цьому сегменті».

Отже, таким бачать автомобільний ринок у 2024 році провідні автомобільні оператори.