До 2027 року електромобілі стануть у виробництві дешевшими за машини з ДВЗ

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Компанія Hertz, яка спеціалізується на прокаті легкових автомобілів, вже «обпеклася» на закупівлі великої партії електромобілів, оскільки вони виявилися істотно дорожчими в ремонті після ДТП, хоча номінально експлуатаційні витрати на них були нижчими. Аналітики Gartner очікують, що у виробництві електромобілі виявляться дешевшими за машини з ДВЗ вже до 2027 року, але при цьому середня вартість страхового ремонту таких машин буде вищою на 30%.

Ще одним прогнозом Gartner є згадка про можливість банкрутства чи консолідацію активів з іншими учасниками ринку до 15% виробників електромобілів, заснованих із минулого десятиліття. За словами представників Gartner, зараз нові амбітні гравці ринку електромобілів шукають шляхи оптимізації виробництва на кшталт розробки нових архітектур або переходу на лиття великих кузовних деталей під тиском, щоб отримати конкурентні переваги, порівняно з класичними автовиробниками. Рано чи пізно це неминуче призведе до консолідації ринку.

Вже у 2027 році середньостатистичний електромобіль, на думку аналітиків Gartner, обходитиметься у виробництві дешевше, ніж порівняний за характеристиками автомобіль із ДВЗ. При цьому найближчими роками собівартість виробництва електромобіля знижуватиметься швидше, ніж собівартість тягових батарей. З цієї причини пов’язані з пошкодженням батареї при ДТП ремонтні роботи коштуватимуть великі суми.

У середньому, вартість ремонту електромобіля після серйозної ДТП буде на 30% вищою, ніж у машин з ДВЗ. Подібні страхові випадки частіше призводитимуть до тотального списання транспортних засобів. На ринку страхових послуг це теж проявить себе: як збільшення вартості полісів, так і появою в деяких учасників бажання відмовитися від страхування окремих моделей електромобілів.

На розвиток ринку електромобілів також негативно вплине і неминуча відмова урядів окремих країн від субсидування продажу таких транспортних засобів. Ринок увійде у фазу, яка передбачатиме виживання найсильніших гравців. У поточному році, як очікують представники Gartner, буде реалізовано 18,4 млн електромобілів, а наступного – близько 20,6 млн штук. Виживання багатьох виробників електромобілів залежатиме від їхньої здатності швидко підлаштовуватися під запити покупців.