Український ринок палива чекають кілька місяців турбулентності

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Український ринок палива чекає кілька місяців турбулентності у зв’язку з необхідністю перебудови європейського ринку через обмеження G7, Австралії та ЄС ціни на російську нафту на рівні $60 за барель та інших обмежень, пов’язаних із морськими перевезеннями нафти російського походження, вважає директор Консалтингової групи «А-95» Сергій Куюн.

«Нас чекають 2-3 місяці турбулентності, поки європейський ринок не адаптується спочатку до нафтових, а потім і нафтопродуктових санкцій. А поки що ми ці санкції відчули першими. Питання навіть не в ціні, а в наявності продукту. Так, ми маємо всі можливості привезти, головне, щоб було що», – написав він у своєму Facebook у неділю.

Куюн зупинився на поточній ситуації за основними напрямками постачання пального в Україну, зазначивши, що, зокрема, Болгарія повністю припинила експорт через невизначеність подальшої роботи лукойлівського НПЗ у Бургасі, а в Румунії спостерігається затримка танкерів через погодні умови, ремонт резервуарів порту Констанца, а також заблокований причал через підозри в російському походженні дизпалива. Крім того, поширюються чутки про зупинення лукойлівського НПЗ «Петротел» через санкції.

Водночас італійський ринок переживає турбулентність через націоналізацію найбільшого лукойлівського НПЗ ISAB на Сицилії, а в Туреччині українські компанії відмовляються від дизеля НПЗ STAR через недостатню морозостійкість, а також спостерігається відсутність вільних партій у порту Opet.

Водночас у Греції немає пропозицій для продажу, а Польща має обмежений ресурс, а також зриває графіки поставок через завантаженість залізниць, зокрема через збільшення обсягів перевезення вугілля.

«Є й спільні для всіх проблеми. Російську нафту заміщають іншими сортами, які переважно легші. Тобто відбір середніх дистилятів – дизеля і авіагасу – менший. А саме це найпопулярніші позиції в Європі», – пояснив експерт.

Водночас він зазначив, що є позитивні моменти – збільшення випуску бензину, з яким ситуація на ринку набагато краща.

Водночас Куюн зазначив, що «цей період потрібно просто пройти», як Україна пройшла набагато складніший етап перебудови ринку навесні, коли довелося замістити 100% довоєнних джерел палива.

За його словами, Європі належить замістити набагато менше – орієнтовно 40%, хоча, на думку експерта, це теж проблема. Ситуація із заміщенням Європою російського газу, де вона вже досягла деякого успіху, набагато складніша за нинішню ситуацію з нафтопродуктами.

«Із газом це зробити набагато складніше, адже там нестача танкерів і перевалок. А дизель возять морем десятиліттями. Вже є сигнали про переорієнтацію на Європу великих танкерів з Індії та Китаю. Привабливі (високі) ціни будуть затягувати в Європу дедалі більші обсяги продукту з усього світу», – переконаний експерт.

За його словами, тільки-но нова конфігурація поставок сформується, ціни на ресурс впадуть.

«Тим паче, що на відміну від природного газу, про подорожчання в рази наразі не йдеться», – висловив переконання Куюн.

Утім, поки що, за даними експерта, нинішня ситуація призвела до збільшення цін і послуг з перевезення пального морем і сушею – за останні пару тижнів премії міжнародних трейдерів вже зросли на $70-80/т (до 3 грн/л).

«Але навіть ті, хто готовий накинути і $100, не можуть отримати продукт, тому що його немає», – зазначив директор консалтингової групи.

Водночас він закликав не критикувати союзників України за максимальну ціну на російську нафту в $60/бар, зазначивши, що питання не в ціні, а в тому, щоб не було дефіциту, який, зі свого боку, призведе до «космічної ціни».

«Потрібно дочекатися, коли російське пальне повністю залишить Європу з 5 лютого (запровадження заборони на широкий спектр послуг, пов’язаних з перевезенням російської нафти – ЕР). Хоча дедалі більше трейдерів відмовляється від нього, воно є на ринку. Скажу більше, воно є і в Україні і теж гальмує повний перехід до ринку «без вас»», – підсумував експерт.

Як повідомлялося, 3 грудня країни групи G7 разом з Австралією приєдналися до ЄС і оголосили, що погодилися встановити стелю цін на нафту, експортовану з РФ морем, на рівні $60 за барель.

У заяві G7 нагадує, що наступного тижня коаліція з питань граничної ціни (G7, ЄС і Австралія) запровадить заборону на широкий спектр послуг, зокрема судноплавне страхування і торгове фінансування, пов’язаних з морськими перевезеннями сирої нафти російського походження, за винятком тих випадків, коли покупці купуватимуть нафту за вартістю $60 або менше $60 за барель.

Водночас уточнюється, що імпортери, які купують російську нафту в рамках цінової межі, збережуть доступ до різних послуг в державах – учасниках коаліції, необхідних для торгівлі нафтою.

Зазначається, що з 5 лютого 2023 року заборона на такі послуги поширюватиметься на морське транспортування нафтопродуктів російського походження за винятком продуктів, що продаються в рамках встановленої стелі цін.

Зі свого боку президент України Володимир Зеленський заявив, що встановлена гранична ціна $60 за барель російської нафти, що експортується з РФ морем, «не є серйозною».

Росія, зазначив президент, вже завдала колосальної шкоди всім країнам світу свідомою дестабілізацією енергоринку, а світ ніяк не може зважитися на її справжнє енергетичне роззброєння.

«Це слабка позиція. І тільки питання часу, коли все одно доведеться застосовувати більш сильні інструменти. Шкода, що цей час буде втрачено. Логіка очевидна: якщо обмеження ціни на російську нафту – $60 замість, наприклад, 30, про які говорили, зокрема, Польща і країни Балтії, російський бюджет отримуватиме в рік близько $100 млрд», – наголосив він.